Pick'em
College football · Week 5 · 56 games · lines as of Sat 7:00 PM ET
One unit a pick at the best price across nine books. House picks are there to fade or follow. No money changes hands.
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Games
Every game this week has kicked off.
Final · 56 games
Thu, Oct 1
- FinalFinal
Western KentuckyCUSA13
New Mexico StateCUSA34 - FinalFinal
North TexasAAC45
TulsaAAC44
Fri, Oct 2
- FinalFinal
PittsburghACC35
Virginia TechACC33 - FinalFinal
Penn StateB1G13
NorthwesternB1G34
Sat, Oct 3
- FinalFinal
UCFB1217
HoustonB1227 - FinalFinal
Notre DameIND37
North CarolinaACC26 - FinalFinal
Boston CollegeACC16
SMUACC25 - FinalFinal
NavyAAC9
Air ForceMWC14 - FinalFinal
AlabamaSEC56
Mississippi StateSEC23 - FinalFinal
West VirginiaB1242
Iowa StateB1245 - FinalFinal
StanfordACC3
Wake ForestACC57 - FinalFinal
SyracuseACC42
UConnIND41 - FinalFinal
MichiganB1G14
MinnesotaB1G20 - FinalFinal
Michigan StateB1G3
WisconsinB1G31 - FinalFinal
VanderbiltSEC14
GeorgiaSEC38 - FinalFinal
Western MichiganMAC20
BuffaloMAC17 - FinalFinal
ToledoMAC39
Ball StateMAC24 - FinalFinal
VirginiaACC7
Florida StateACC38 - FinalFinal
SamfordFCS14
UABAAC33 - FinalFinal
FloridaSEC17
MissouriSEC45 - FinalFinal
Bowling GreenMAC24
Miami (OH)MAC20 - FinalFinal
Eastern MichiganMAC38UMassMAC14 - FinalFinal
LouisvilleACC28
NC StateACC31 - FinalFinal
AkronMAC17
Central MichiganMAC41 - FinalFinal
Ohio StateB1G31
IowaB1G14 - FinalFinal
WyomingMWC0
North Dakota StateMWC28 - FinalFinal
OhioMAC13
Kent StateMAC10 - FinalFinal
Old DominionSBC10
Georgia StateSBC42 - FinalFinal
CaliforniaACC31
UNLVMWC39 - FinalFinal
AuburnSEC14
TennesseeSEC24 - FinalFinal
MarshallSBC17
James MadisonSBC45 - FinalFinal
MarylandB1G23
NebraskaB1G48 - FinalFinal
UTEPMWC7
New MexicoMWC61 - FinalFinal
PurdueB1G24
IllinoisB1G17 - FinalFinal
KentuckySEC35
South CarolinaSEC34 - FinalFinal
Oregon StateP1256
Colorado StateP1226 - FinalFinal
Texas SouthernFCS10
Florida AtlanticAAC66 - FinalFinal
UTSAAAC16
RiceAAC14 - FinalFinal
UL MonroeSBC35
South AlabamaSBC52 - FinalFinal
ArkansasSEC7
Texas A&MSEC34 - FinalFinal
Georgia SouthernSBC31
Coastal CarolinaSBC24 - FinalFinal
BYUB1217
TCUB1210 - FinalFinal
ArmyAAC29
Louisiana TechSBC31 - FinalFinal
TempleAAC17
South FloridaAAC13 - FinalFinal
MiamiACC41
ClemsonACC13 - FinalFinal
Utah StateP1218
Boise StateP1237 - FinalFinal
WashingtonB1G21
USCB1G25 - FinalFinal
Texas TechB1229
ColoradoB127 - FinalFinalMcNeese StateFCS14
LSUSEC63 - FinalFinal
Arkansas StateSBC20
LouisianaSBC23 - FinalFinal
IndianaB1G47
RutgersB1G15 - FinalFinal
Fresno StateP1226
Washington StateP126 - FinalFinal
BaylorB1255
Arizona StateB1219 - FinalFinal
Texas StateP1229
San Diego StateP1231 - FinalFinal
CincinnatiB127
ArizonaB1234 - FinalFinal
San Jose StateMWC20
HawaiiMWC16
House Card
Week 5 · 27-24 · -2.59u
The house's 5 strongest plays this week, ranked, at the numbers it took. Follow them on the board or fade them; the record counts every call the house is playing, not just the card.
- 1Ohio -3.5Like2u · -103Lock of the weekFinalloss
Money pushed Ohio from -3 through the key number to -3.5. Kent State has been one of the MAC's weakest teams, and I project about a one-score Ohio win. Projected Kent State 21, Ohio 28; final 10-13.
- 2Michigan State +9Like2u · -109Finalloss
This is the biggest move on the slate: money pushed the line from -10.5 to -9, through the key number of 10. With a 43.5 total, points are scarce, which makes 9+ points valuable to the dog. Projected Wisconsin 24, Michigan State 17; final 31-3.
- 3Iowa +14.5Like2u · -110Finalloss
At 14.5 with a total of 45.5, the market expects Ohio State to score about 30 points on the road against Iowa's defense. Iowa's slow pace at Kinnick makes more than two touchdowns a lot to give. Projected Iowa 15, Ohio State 27; final 14-31.
- 4Florida -5.5Like2u · -115Finalloss
Money moved Florida from -5 to -5.5. Missouri is without its top edge rushers and RB Ahmad Hardy, and its run game sits on third-and-long 29% of the time, so Philo should have time to throw. Projected Missouri 23, Florida 33; final 45-17.
- 5Texas State -10Like2u · -112Finalloss
A 5.5-point move, from 4.5 to 10, is a big shift and usually means bad personnel news for San Diego State. I follow the money and project Texas State to win by about two touchdowns. Projected San Diego State 21, Texas State 34; final 31-29.
- 6Florida State MLLean1u · +100Upset alertFinalwin
The money has moved toward Florida State, and my projection has them winning outright. Taking them at even money or +104 is worth it. Projected Florida State 26, Virginia 25; final 38-7.
- Stay awayWestern Kentucky @ New Mexico StateNew Mexico State -2.5Thu 8:00 PM ET
The house passes on all three ways. The spread has not moved from -2.5, and at that number the Aggies are getting about the usual home-field credit. I have no injury or QB news to justify a real lean.
House parlays
One ticket per leg count, two through seven, built from the legs with the most edge over the price. Tailing one risks a unit at the combined price. A push on any leg pushes the ticket.
2-leg parlay
+268- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Florida -5.5-115 loss
The two legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 34% to hit, +25% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 34% to hit · 1 unit returns 3.68
2-leg parlay
+282- Michigan State +9-109 loss
- Auburn +6.5-101 loss
The two legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 31% to hit, +18% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 31% to hit · 1 unit returns 3.82
3-leg parlay
+603- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Florida -5.5-115 loss
- Iowa +14.5-110 loss
The three legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 20% to hit, +39% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 20% to hit · 1 unit returns 7.03
3-leg parlay
+652- Michigan State +9-109 loss
- Auburn +6.5-101 loss
- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
The three legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 16% to hit, +24% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 16% to hit · 1 unit returns 7.52
4-leg parlay
+1200- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Florida -5.5-115 loss
- Iowa +14.5-110 loss
- NC State +3-118 win
The four legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 12% to hit, +51% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 12% to hit · 1 unit returns 13.00
4-leg parlay
+1336- Michigan State +9-109 loss
- Auburn +6.5-101 loss
- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Over 57.5 (Florida @ Missouri)-110 win
The four legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 9.0% to hit, +29% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 9.0% to hit · 1 unit returns 14.36
5-leg parlay
+2360- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Florida -5.5-115 loss
- Iowa +14.5-110 loss
- NC State +3-118 win
- Texas State -10-112 loss
The five legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 6.7% to hit, +64% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 6.7% to hit · 1 unit returns 24.60
5-leg parlay
+2641- Michigan State +9-109 loss
- Auburn +6.5-101 loss
- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Over 57.5 (Florida @ Missouri)-110 win
- Under 43 (Michigan @ Minnesota)-110 win
The five legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 4.9% to hit, +35% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 4.9% to hit · 1 unit returns 27.41
6-leg parlay
+4376- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Florida -5.5-115 loss
- Iowa +14.5-110 loss
- NC State +3-118 win
- Texas State -10-112 loss
- San Jose State +3-122 win
The six legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 3.9% to hit, +76% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 3.9% to hit · 1 unit returns 44.76
6-leg parlay
+5133- Michigan State +9-109 loss
- Auburn +6.5-101 loss
- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Over 57.5 (Florida @ Missouri)-110 win
- Under 43 (Michigan @ Minnesota)-110 win
- Fresno State +1.5-110 win
The six legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 2.7% to hit, +40% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 2.7% to hit · 1 unit returns 52.33
6-leg parlay
+5250- Georgia State -2.5-105 win
- Ohio -3.5-101 loss
- Oregon State -6.5-110 win
- Over 58.5 (Washington @ USC)-105 loss
- UMass -5.5-106 loss
- Pittsburgh +2.5-111 win
The six legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 2.5% to hit, +35% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 2.5% to hit · 1 unit returns 53.50
7-leg parlay
+8808- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Florida -5.5-115 loss
- Iowa +14.5-110 loss
- NC State +3-118 win
- Texas State -10-112 loss
- San Jose State +3-122 win
- Auburn +6.5-101 loss
The seven legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 2.1% to hit, +86% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 2.1% to hit · 1 unit returns 89.08
7-leg parlay
+9805- Michigan State +9-109 loss
- Auburn +6.5-101 loss
- Ohio -3.5-103 loss
- Over 57.5 (Florida @ Missouri)-110 win
- Under 43 (Michigan @ Minnesota)-110 win
- Fresno State +1.5-110 win
- UCF +10.5-112 win
The seven legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 1.5% to hit, +45% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 1.5% to hit · 1 unit returns 99.05
7-leg parlay
+10345- Georgia State -2.5-105 win
- Ohio -3.5-101 loss
- Oregon State -6.5-110 win
- Over 58.5 (Washington @ USC)-105 loss
- UMass -5.5-106 loss
- Pittsburgh +2.5-111 win
- Under 48 (BYU @ TCU)-105 win
The seven legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 1.3% to hit, +40% expected value on a unit.
House puts it at 1.3% to hit · 1 unit returns 104.45
Leaderboard
Net units, season to date, NFL and college together. The House plays its own calls: 1 unit on a lean, 2 on a like, 3 on a best bet.
- #PlayerWeek 5Units
- 1Brandon21-14-23-1 · +1.94+4.70
- 2KingKhong18-116-7 · -5.03-3.43
- 3The HouseAI169-146-427-24 · -2.59-8.64
How it works
- Lines are the median across nine US books, refreshed daily and more often on game day. Each button carries the best available price and the book that has it (abbreviated on phones, spelled out under “lines & house”).
- A pick locks the line and price at that moment. Kickoff freezes it.
- Every pick risks 1 unit. A win at -110 returns 0.91, a +200 dog returns 2.00, a loss costs 1, a push is 0.
- Everyone's picks become visible once a game kicks off.
- Already bet it at a book? Import a screenshot of the slip and each leg becomes a pick at the line and price you got, as long as its game is on the board and has not kicked off. A parlay also counts as its own one-unit ticket when every leg is on the board. The screenshot is read once and not kept, and the dollar stake is shown only to you.
- Games in play stay at the top of the board with the score and clock from ESPN, refreshed about every 30 seconds. A dim W or L on a pick is where it stands right now; it turns solid, and the leaderboard moves, once the game is final.
- Every game gets a house call on the spread, total and moneyline from an AI handicapper that reads the lines, the movement, and the week's news. Fade or follow. A pill on a button marks the house's side: LEAN is about a 55% shot against the number, LIKE about 58%, BEST 62% or better. No pill means the house thinks the number is fair and passes; its reasoning is still under “lines & house”. Hover a pill for the house's reasoning, or tap it to open the game's lines and house notes.
- The house plays its own calls: 1 unit on a LEAN, 2 on a LIKE, 3 on a BEST, at the number and price it saw when it made the call. It sits in the leaderboard with everyone else, so you can see whether fading it or following it is paying.
- The House Card is the house's strongest plays of the week, ranked by how much it likes them: five for college, three for the NFL. The top play is the lock of the week when it is a LIKE or better, the strongest plus-money play is the upset alert, and the closest game the house passes on all three ways is the one to stay away from. The house also projects a final score for each game, under “lines & house”; a projection that contradicted its own spread or total call is not shown.
- House parlays are math, not vibes: each leg's price becomes a probability, nudged by how much the house likes it, and the legs with the most edge are stacked two to seven deep. The percentage is the house's own estimate of the ticket hitting; it is usually lower than the price implies, which is the point.
- The college slate is the forty most interesting games of the week: closest Power Four matchups first, and Arkansas always. The NFL slate is every game of the week.