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Pick'em

CollegeNFL

NFL · Week 4 · 16 games · lines as of Sun 7:00 PM ET

One unit a pick at the best price across nine books. House picks are there to fade or follow. No money changes hands.

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Games

Kick (ET)
Matchup
Spread
Total
Moneyline

Live · 5 games

  1. Live
    Live
    Dolphins
    Vikings
  2. Live
    Live
    Chargers
    Seahawks
  3. Live
    Live
    Broncos
    49ers
  4. Live
    Live
    Chiefs
    Raiders
  5. Live
    Live
    Lions
    Panthers

Mon, Oct 5ET

  1. 8:15 PM
    8:15 PM
    Falcons
    Saints
Final · 10 games

Thu, Oct 1

  1. Final
    Final
    Steelers24
    Browns27

Sun, Oct 4

  1. Final
    Final
    Colts30
    Commanders13
  2. Final
    Final
    Jets12
    Bears23
  3. Final
    Final
    Rams24
    Eagles20
  4. Final
    Final
    Jaguars22
    Bengals17
  5. Final
    Final
    Patriots29
    Bills26
  6. Final
    Final
    Cardinals24
    Giants36
  7. Final
    Final
    Packers17
    Buccaneers14
  8. Final
    Final
    Cowboys34
    Texans30
  9. Final
    Final
    Titans18
    Ravens24

House Card

Week 4 · 6-5 · +0.87u

The house's 3 strongest plays this week, ranked, at the numbers it took. Follow them on the board or fade them; the record counts every call the house is playing, not just the card.

  1. 1
    Eagles +3.5Lean1u · -105Finalloss

    The line moved from 3 to 3.5, so the Eagles now get the hook past the key number of 3, at -105 at FanDuel. The two offenses' ratings are close (+0.022 vs -0.025), so the half point carries value. Projected Eagles 20, Rams 22; final 20-24.

  2. 2
    Jets +3.5Lean1u · -103Finalloss

    LowVig has the Jets +3.5 at -103, on the good side of the key number 3 at a cheap price. Chicago is also listed without DBs Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon, which helps the Jets' passing game (+0.224 EPA). Projected Bears 24, Jets 21; final 23-12.

  3. 3
    Cowboys MLLean1u · +131Upset alertFinalwin

    This is the same unit mismatch as the spread pick. If Dallas covers +3 about 55% of the time, they should win outright more often than the 43% that +135 implies. Projected Texans 24, Cowboys 25; final 30-34.

  4. Stay awayChargers @ SeahawksSeahawks -7Sun 4:25 PM ET

    The house passes on all three ways. Seattle's passing game (+0.257 EPA) against the Chargers' weak pass defense (+0.147) points to the Seahawks. But the Chargers' QB situation (Trey Lance listed questionable) is unconfirmed because search was unavailable, so I'm passing at 7.

House parlays

One ticket per leg count, two through seven, built from the legs with the most edge over the price. Tailing one risks a unit at the combined price. A push on any leg pushes the ticket.

2-leg parlay

+285
  • Eagles +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%The line moved from 3 to 3.5, so the Eagles now get the hook past the key number of 3, at -105 at FanDuel. The two offenses' ratings are close (+0.022 vs -0.025), so the half point carries value.-105 loss
  • Jets +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%LowVig has the Jets +3.5 at -103, on the good side of the key number 3 at a cheap price. Chicago is also listed without DBs Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon, which helps the Jets' passing game (+0.224 EPA).-103 loss

The two legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 29% to hit, +13% expected value on a unit.

House puts it at 29% to hit · 1 unit returns 3.85

3-leg parlay

+789
  • Eagles +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%The line moved from 3 to 3.5, so the Eagles now get the hook past the key number of 3, at -105 at FanDuel. The two offenses' ratings are close (+0.022 vs -0.025), so the half point carries value.-105 loss
  • Jets +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%LowVig has the Jets +3.5 at -103, on the good side of the key number 3 at a cheap price. Chicago is also listed without DBs Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon, which helps the Jets' passing game (+0.224 EPA).-103 loss
  • Cowboys MLLeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%This is the same unit mismatch as the spread pick. If Dallas covers +3 about 55% of the time, they should win outright more often than the 43% that +135 implies.+131 win

The three legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 13% to hit, +19% expected value on a unit.

House puts it at 13% to hit · 1 unit returns 8.89

4-leg parlay

+1612
  • Eagles +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%The line moved from 3 to 3.5, so the Eagles now get the hook past the key number of 3, at -105 at FanDuel. The two offenses' ratings are close (+0.022 vs -0.025), so the half point carries value.-105 loss
  • Jets +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%LowVig has the Jets +3.5 at -103, on the good side of the key number 3 at a cheap price. Chicago is also listed without DBs Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon, which helps the Jets' passing game (+0.224 EPA).-103 loss
  • Cowboys MLLeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%This is the same unit mismatch as the spread pick. If Dallas covers +3 about 55% of the time, they should win outright more often than the 43% that +135 implies.+131 win
  • Panthers +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Detroit's secondary is depleted: Branch and Joseph are on PUP, Reed is questionable, and the pass defense is allowing 0.183 EPA. Carolina's passing game is at 0.157, and +4 is available at LowVig.-108

The four legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 7.2% to hit, +24% expected value on a unit.

House puts it at 7.2% to hit · 1 unit returns 17.12

5-leg parlay

+3197
  • Eagles +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%The line moved from 3 to 3.5, so the Eagles now get the hook past the key number of 3, at -105 at FanDuel. The two offenses' ratings are close (+0.022 vs -0.025), so the half point carries value.-105 loss
  • Jets +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%LowVig has the Jets +3.5 at -103, on the good side of the key number 3 at a cheap price. Chicago is also listed without DBs Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon, which helps the Jets' passing game (+0.224 EPA).-103 loss
  • Cowboys MLLeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%This is the same unit mismatch as the spread pick. If Dallas covers +3 about 55% of the time, they should win outright more often than the 43% that +135 implies.+131 win
  • Panthers +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Detroit's secondary is depleted: Branch and Joseph are on PUP, Reed is questionable, and the pass defense is allowing 0.183 EPA. Carolina's passing game is at 0.157, and +4 is available at LowVig.-108
  • Over 46.5 (Colts @ Commanders)LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Both pass defenses are bad (Indianapolis allows +0.195 EPA/pass, Washington +0.200), and the Colts are also weak against the run (+0.109).-108 loss

The five legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 3.9% to hit, +28% expected value on a unit.

House puts it at 3.9% to hit · 1 unit returns 32.97

6-leg parlay

+6337
  • Eagles +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%The line moved from 3 to 3.5, so the Eagles now get the hook past the key number of 3, at -105 at FanDuel. The two offenses' ratings are close (+0.022 vs -0.025), so the half point carries value.-105 loss
  • Jets +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%LowVig has the Jets +3.5 at -103, on the good side of the key number 3 at a cheap price. Chicago is also listed without DBs Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon, which helps the Jets' passing game (+0.224 EPA).-103 loss
  • Cowboys MLLeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%This is the same unit mismatch as the spread pick. If Dallas covers +3 about 55% of the time, they should win outright more often than the 43% that +135 implies.+131 win
  • Panthers +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Detroit's secondary is depleted: Branch and Joseph are on PUP, Reed is questionable, and the pass defense is allowing 0.183 EPA. Carolina's passing game is at 0.157, and +4 is available at LowVig.-108
  • Over 46.5 (Colts @ Commanders)LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Both pass defenses are bad (Indianapolis allows +0.195 EPA/pass, Washington +0.200), and the Colts are also weak against the run (+0.109).-108 loss
  • Under 39 (Packers @ Buccaneers)LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Green Bay's run game is at -0.41 EPA per rush, and it faces a Tampa Bay run defense at -0.177. Tampa Bay's offense is at -0.178 and now has an undrafted rookie making his first NFL start.-105 win

The six legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 2.1% to hit, +33% expected value on a unit.

House puts it at 2.1% to hit · 1 unit returns 64.37

7-leg parlay

+12242
  • Eagles +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%The line moved from 3 to 3.5, so the Eagles now get the hook past the key number of 3, at -105 at FanDuel. The two offenses' ratings are close (+0.022 vs -0.025), so the half point carries value.-105 loss
  • Jets +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%LowVig has the Jets +3.5 at -103, on the good side of the key number 3 at a cheap price. Chicago is also listed without DBs Coby Bryant and Kyler Gordon, which helps the Jets' passing game (+0.224 EPA).-103 loss
  • Cowboys MLLeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%This is the same unit mismatch as the spread pick. If Dallas covers +3 about 55% of the time, they should win outright more often than the 43% that +135 implies.+131 win
  • Panthers +3.5LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Detroit's secondary is depleted: Branch and Joseph are on PUP, Reed is questionable, and the pass defense is allowing 0.183 EPA. Carolina's passing game is at 0.157, and +4 is available at LowVig.-108
  • Over 46.5 (Colts @ Commanders)LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Both pass defenses are bad (Indianapolis allows +0.195 EPA/pass, Washington +0.200), and the Colts are also weak against the run (+0.109).-108 loss
  • Under 39 (Packers @ Buccaneers)LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Green Bay's run game is at -0.41 EPA per rush, and it faces a Tampa Bay run defense at -0.177. Tampa Bay's offense is at -0.178 and now has an undrafted rookie making his first NFL start.-105 win
  • Under 48 (Chiefs @ Raiders)LeanHouse lean · 1 unit · about 55%Both defenses are allowing negative EPA (KC -0.092, LV -0.138), and the Raiders' run game is very poor (-0.249). Las Vegas's run defense (-0.202) should also slow KC on the ground, which argues against 48 points.-109

The seven legs with the most edge over the price. House puts it at 1.1% to hit, +38% expected value on a unit.

House puts it at 1.1% to hit · 1 unit returns 123.42

Leaderboard

Net units, season to date, NFL and college together. The House plays its own calls: 1 unit on a lean, 2 on a like, 3 on a best bet.

  1. #PlayerWeek 4Units
  2. 1Brandon21-14-2—+4.70
  3. 2KingKhong18-114-4 · -1.48-3.43
  4. 3The HouseAI169-146-46-5 · +0.87-8.64
How it works
  • Lines are the median across nine US books, refreshed daily and more often on game day. Each button carries the best available price and the book that has it (abbreviated on phones, spelled out under “lines & house”).
  • A pick locks the line and price at that moment. Kickoff freezes it.
  • Every pick risks 1 unit. A win at -110 returns 0.91, a +200 dog returns 2.00, a loss costs 1, a push is 0.
  • Everyone's picks become visible once a game kicks off.
  • Already bet it at a book? Import a screenshot of the slip and each leg becomes a pick at the line and price you got, as long as its game is on the board and has not kicked off. A parlay also counts as its own one-unit ticket when every leg is on the board. The screenshot is read once and not kept, and the dollar stake is shown only to you.
  • Games in play stay at the top of the board with the score and clock from ESPN, refreshed about every 30 seconds. A dim W or L on a pick is where it stands right now; it turns solid, and the leaderboard moves, once the game is final.
  • Every game gets a house call on the spread, total and moneyline from an AI handicapper that reads the lines, the movement, and the week's news. Fade or follow. A pill on a button marks the house's side: LEAN is about a 55% shot against the number, LIKE about 58%, BEST 62% or better. No pill means the house thinks the number is fair and passes; its reasoning is still under “lines & house”. Hover a pill for the house's reasoning, or tap it to open the game's lines and house notes.
  • The house plays its own calls: 1 unit on a LEAN, 2 on a LIKE, 3 on a BEST, at the number and price it saw when it made the call. It sits in the leaderboard with everyone else, so you can see whether fading it or following it is paying.
  • The House Card is the house's strongest plays of the week, ranked by how much it likes them: five for college, three for the NFL. The top play is the lock of the week when it is a LIKE or better, the strongest plus-money play is the upset alert, and the closest game the house passes on all three ways is the one to stay away from. The house also projects a final score for each game, under “lines & house”; a projection that contradicted its own spread or total call is not shown.
  • House parlays are math, not vibes: each leg's price becomes a probability, nudged by how much the house likes it, and the legs with the most edge are stacked two to seven deep. The percentage is the house's own estimate of the ticket hitting; it is usually lower than the price implies, which is the point.
  • The college slate is the forty most interesting games of the week: closest Power Four matchups first, and Arkansas always. The NFL slate is every game of the week.